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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."