A Decade of Talking Points from the Recent Premier League Matches

1. Rogers and Emery Combine for Heist

Are match outcomes be misleading? One must ask. The Villans' triumphant run persisted with a win over Manchester United, accompanied by the persistent questions. Statistically, they were inferior by multiple metrics – a lower shot count (12-15), less possession (43-57), not as many golden opportunities (2-3). Typically, the victory was by a narrow margin. As usual, the xG metric painted a different picture: analysis indicates United edged it 1.31-1.02. However, supporters understand games are decided on the pitch, not on spreadsheets. They are won by cohesive units, astute coaching and sparkling skill – and Villa have all three. Morgan Rogers could be considered their sole standout, but his contributions are coming like Father Christmas. The Villa manager is crafty, seasoned, five years ahead of Ruben Amorim. Should Rogers have benefited from Leny Yoro’s naivety, that was probably because the coach had detected that his opponent was uncomfortable, and told Rogers to start wide, cut in and torment him. Talent and management, combining effectively.

2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short

When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 last month, their fans felt optimism return. They had won three league games on the bounce for the first time under Ruben Amorim. They had risen to fourth. And the wins were all good ones – over Brighton (one of their many bogey teams), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (in front of their own fans, versus a newly-promoted side, but still – an untroubled victory). Their keeper provided stability, the attack was exciting and morale was high. But then United slipped into a slump. Over the next eight fixtures, a mere pair of successes, six missed opportunities. At Villa Park they were the better team without ever appearing likely to triumph. Yes, the Brazilian scored a good goal, but he also missed a sitter. Yes, United were unlucky with injuries (to important midfielders), but they conceded soft goals. Following over a year in England, Amorim still hasn’t worked out how to claim three points.

3. Below-Par Gunners Get on Their Grind

It was an 8pm kick-off on the festive weekend but a distinct lack of quality in the final third made for a sobering evening. For Everton, the issue was predictable with creative forces absent, and the experienced winger failing to inspire an entire team single-handedly. In many respects it is remarkable that Everton sat fifth in the table recently given they have played the whole campaign without a reliable number nine. For Arsenal and Mikel Arteta, while he enjoyed a merited victory and ascending to the summit of the table, the flaw should be just as worrying given their ambitions for the Premier League. The manager claimed that victories will inevitably grow more comfortable with dedication and persistence. But it is a little early in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.

4. Guardiola's Strict Festive Regime for Champions

On Christmas Day Pep Guardiola will conduct fitness tests to ensure his Manchester City players have not indulged too much. Guardiola said the players asked to take a day off after their 3-0 triumph but he declined because their display lacked quality. So the schedule involves rehabilitation, work for those who didn't feature, and following a short break, then brief training for the next fixture. The manager outlined how the side can improve. “My strength is deciphering what happens in the game, identifying weaknesses – if the players were in these positions, we could create more.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I have holidays with the family and champagne. I'll visit Barcelona – it's a great city, the food is top.”

5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow

Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a glorious few seconds, as a turning point. This was the very purpose Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to decide close contests with his clever positioning and composure, and the confidence with which he finished from good service boded superbly. So the scene of his substitution immediately, following a rash challenge, was a significant blow for the Dutch coach and frustrating for fans who would like to see such a gifted player reach his peak again. It is believed Isak has picked up a serious leg injury and he could be in for a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a significant setback with Liverpool having steadily climbed towards the upper echelons, putting together a six-game unbeaten run featuring Isak’s first Premier League goals in their colours. Their campaign trajectory appear inextricably linked to those of their record signing.

6. Did Chelsea Get Away with One?

Managers often moan about controversial calls as a means of shifting the focus from matters they want to keep private. The numerous points Newcastle have squandered when ahead this season is a prime example. Their manager certainly did not seem too willing to mention that costly trend following his side’s failure to protect a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they ended up drawing. Yet Howe was surely right to question a decision made by the on-field referee and VAR not to award his team a penalty following a obvious foul on the England international. With the score then 2-1, a penalty could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the defender the benefit of considerable doubt informed by past incidents for being skilled at winning penalties and sometimes simulating? Analysis from a respected pundit was revealing. “He anticipates the contact,” he said. “He's prepared for the impact and he braces for it. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the nature of the contact there … that’s not shielding the ball.”

7. Statistical Doom for Struggling Wolves

Brentford’s first away win this season spelled a welcome result for Keith Andrews. Instead of reveling in the win, Andrews spoke kindly about Wolves, the club he started his career with. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is increasingly desperate; Opta state – maybe optimistically – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving only pride at stake beyond honour. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly

Austin Miller
Austin Miller

A professional blackjack strategist with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and mathematical analysis.